Annual inflation in Uzbekistan reaches its lowest level of 8.58% over past few years

Uzbekistan has sustained its downward trajectory in inflation, marking a continued decline as reported by the Statistics Agency. By the end of January, the monthly inflation rate stood at a modest 0.64%, contributing to an annual inflation rate of 8.58%.

Last month witnessed a marginal increase in food prices by 0.7%, non-food items by 0.4%, and services by 0.9%. Despite the overall inflation, specific staple items experienced a decrease in prices. Sunflower oil witnessed a decrease of 0.9%, flour by 0.5%, rice by 0.4%, sugar by 0.3%, and meat by 0.2%.

Vegetable prices saw some variations, with tomatoes recording the highest increase at 10.4%, followed by onions at 3.8%, and potatoes at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the cost of gasoline rose by an average of 3.4% (ranging from 1.2% to 6.4%), and propane prices increased by an average of 4.8% (ranging from 0.7% to 11.9%).

One positive aspect contributing to the overall decline in inflation is the stability in the prices of mobile communication services, which have not changed and even decreased by 3.9% y/y.

The decline in inflation is a continued trend from November 2023 when annual inflation reached 8.8%, remaining unchanged at the end of 2023. This marked the lowest inflation rate since August 2016 when the annual inflation was 8.7%.

Other Central Asian Economies

Kazakhstan

On January 3, DataHub's report revealed that the annual increase in prices for goods and services in December recorded a 9.8% surge, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% compared to November. The Bureau of National Statistics emphasized a consistent downward trend in this economic indicator throughout 2023, starting from March.

The most significant price hike was observed in paid services, experiencing substantial growth at 12.4%. In the non-food sector, inflation stood at 9.1%, primarily driven by notable increases in diesel fuel by 15.2%, gasoline by 13.7%, and liquefied gas in cylinders by 13.6%. Within the food sector, the annual growth in prices was relatively more moderate, registering at 8.5%. Noteworthy increases included rice, witnessing a substantial surge of 34.3%, while buckwheat experienced a decrease of -22.6%, and sunflower oil dropped by 18%.

For December, the monthly inflation rate was 0.8%, indicating a slowdown compared to November. Specifically, food prices increased by 0.9%, paid services by 0.8%, and non-food products by 0.5%.

In Kyrgyzstan, inflationary processes continue to decelerate, with the official representative of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, Aida Karabaeva, reporting a 7.3% annual inflation rate in December 2023, decreasing to 5.9% in January 2024. The inflation structure demonstrates a steady slowdown in the annual increase in food product prices, from 15.8% in December 2022 to 1.9% in January 2024. Karabaeva attributed the slower decline in prices for non-food goods and services to administrative measures revising tariff policies for specific goods and services.

Karabaeva noted that external environmental conditions remain key factors influencing inflation processes in Kyrgyzstan, and their impact suggests a gradual return of core inflation to target levels.

Tajikistan

Tajikistan maintains a remarkably low consumer price inflation of 2.3% as of July 2023, making it the sole Central Asian economy below its central bank's target corridor of 4-8%. The National Bank of Tajikistan responded by gradually reducing its policy rate from 13% in November 2022 to 10% in May 2023. Despite a 7.4% depreciation of the somoni against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of 2023, the currency remains resilient, with potential negative effects expected later in the year through the remittances channel.

Turkmenistan 

In Turkmenistan, the inflation rate decreased to 5.90% in 2023 from 11.48% in 2022. The average inflation rate in Turkmenistan since 1993 is 198.03%, reaching a record high of 2100.00% in 1993 and a record low of -2.67% in 2009.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan experienced a decrease in the inflation rate, reaching -9.10% in November, down from -8% in October 2023. The average inflation rate in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2023 is 6.14%, with a record high of 47.83% in May 2008 and a record low of -18.37% in May 2009.

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