The economic landscape of Central Asian states and Afghanistan has seen significant changes over the past five years (2018-2023), with the collective GDP reaching $446bn in 2023.
GDP Growth Trends
As of June 2023, the World Bank reported that Central Asia experienced a 1.4% contraction in 2020, with a recovery to 5.2% in 2021. Last year saw regional growth slow to an estimated 4.2% in Central Asia, and the forecast for 2023 envisioned a further slowdown to 4.0%.
In 2018, the Central Asia subregion’s GDP growth was estimated to be around 4.7%, with forecasts of 4.2% in 2019 and 4.0% in 2020.
The gross domestic product (GDP) of countries that were part of the European Commission’s Eastern Neighborhood Policy and Central Asian countries was forecast to drop by 7.7% in 2022, negatively impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the following year 2023, the region’s GDP was expected to grow by 4.9% compared to 2022.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) was expected to grow by 7.0% in 2023 and by 7.2% in 2024. Investment in major energy and infrastructure projects is likely to contribute to GDP growth in the medium term.
Afghanistan
- The GDP of war-torn Afghanistan was worth $14.9bn in 2021, and it fell to $14bn by 2022. Following that it grew slightly to $14.6bn in 2023. Before 2021 the country's economy was at its lowest due to the ravaging war and was barely getting by with opium sales.
Kazakhstan
- The GDP of Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia was worth $225.5bn in 2022, an 11.93% increase from 2021. The GDP for 2021 was $197.1bn, a 15.21% increase from 2020. The GDP for 2020 was $171bn, a 5.83% decline from 2019. The GDP for 2019 was $181.7bn, a 1.3% increase from 2018.
Kyrgyzstan
- The GDP of Kyrgyzstan, the only Central Asian state that saw six presidents since gaining independence in 1991, was forecasted to continuously increase between 2023 and 2028 by in total $4.7bn (+37%). The GDP growth compared to the previous year was 3.38% in 2023.
Tajikistan
- Tajikistan, which had one president since the establishment of its independence, has been experiencing a steep growth in its GDP for the past five years, rising from $8.3bn in 2018 to $10.8bn in 2023.
Turkmenistan
- The GDP of Turkmenistan, one of the most closed-off countries in the world, almost doubled over the period of the last five years from $46.7bn to $81.8bn.
Uzbekistan
- Uzbekistan, the most populous state in Central Asia, had its GDP at $80.4bn in 2022. The GDP growth was 5.1% in H1 2023, and it was projected to grow by 4.5% in 2023 and subsequent years.
Earlier, it was reported that in a report released by the World Bank titled 'Europe and Central Asia Economic Update: Sluggish Growth, Rising Risks', Central Asia, a region often overshadowed by its larger counterparts, has showcased a remarkable resilience and growth trajectory from 2020 to 2025.
*All statistical data was taken from Trading Economics and Statista.
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