Central Asian analysts have expressed apprehension that the Israel-Hamas conflict may have wider repercussions in the region, potentially contributing to a surge in radicalization, exacerbated by the influence of strong Russian propaganda, IWPR reports.
Regional authorities have called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, with Kazakhstan, a regional leader, stressing the importance of international law and UN resolutions for Palestinian rights. However, social media discourse is becoming more contentious and could fuel ethnic and religious tensions.
Asylbek Izbairov, Director of Kazakhstan's Institute for Geopolitical Studies, highlighted the perception of Hamas as a movement fighting for Palestinian independence and self-determination, distinguishing it from the radical ideology seen in the Islamic State.
In Kyrgyzstan, members of parliament have chosen to donate a day's salary to provide financial assistance to Palestinians affected by the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Renowned Kazakh actor and director Nurtas Adambai has called for the cancellation of a tour by the Russian band Mashina Vremeni (Time Machine) due to their support for the Israeli army.
Referring to the Jerusalem mosque that the Israeli authorities closed on October 24, Izbairov explained: “A lot depends on the conflict escalation, [there] are numerous victims and protests and rallies all over the world. Al-Aqsa mosque is Islam’s third holiest site, the religious context gains strength."
The rise of radical Islam in Central Asia can be traced back to the post-Soviet era following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This period witnessed a resurgence of more traditional Islamic practices among many Central Asian populations, in part as a response to the enforced atheism promoted by the USSR.
Abdumalik Kodirov, a political analyst based in Tajikistan, pointed out that while there is a sense of religious solidarity, it does not necessarily lead to a deeper understanding of the underlying causes of the crisis.
“Today everyone wants to be seen as a ‘defender of Muslims’ by posting a heart-breaking picture of a dead child or woman on their social media profiles,” he told IWPR, adding that people needed to think critically. “Otherwise, we will be taking [the situation] through a prism of a religious confrontation and this is really dangerous.”
The influence of Russian media, particularly after the Ukraine invasion, significantly shapes public opinion in Central Asia, even though it doesn't take a clear stance on the Israel-Hamas situation. Economic disruptions are a concern due to the Middle East's importance as an energy supplier and key shipping route, potentially leading to higher oil prices and a global recession that would affect Central Asia. Experts are concerned that wealthy countries and blocs like the EU may divert resources, leaving Central Asian states struggling for financial support.
The conflict also challenges initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which seeks to connect railroads and ports from India to Europe via the Middle East. This corridor, viewed as a rival to China's One Belt One Road project, could offer an alternative geo-economic balance in Central Asia, particularly if it includes a reliable link between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Farkhod Tolipov, a Uzbek political analyst, and the head of the Karavan Znaniy analytical NGO, pointed out the harmful impact of Russian media.
“According to it (Russia), there is only one country in the right and all the remaining countries are wrong… in our country, our television keeps on broadcasting Russian channels, which are banned in many other countries, creating a distorted background… and a strongly distorted view of reality. Therefore, we can see public opinion divided on the Palestinian conflict, similar to the situation in Ukraine,” Tolipov said.
Economic concerns center on the Middle East's role as a crucial energy supplier and shipping route. An escalation leading to high oil prices and a global recession could seriously affect Central Asia, which is already dealing with the economic fallout of Russia's Ukraine intervention.
Experts also worry that affluent countries and the EU may redirect resources to address the humanitarian crisis, potentially leaving Central Asian nations without their expected financial support.
Kyrgyz political analyst Edil Osmonbetov highlighted how the war presents a challenge to an ambitious project aimed at establishing a new trade route connecting India to Europe via the Middle East. Known as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), this initiative was announced at the Group of 20 summit in India in September. It involves linking railways and ports from India to Europe through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel.
"It is a direct competitor to the Chinese ‘One Belt One Road’ project,” Osmonbetov said, adding “The corridor’s fate remains unknown as it goes through Israel. There is no direct impact of the delayed implementation on our region, but it is crucial as India could become the geo-economic balance to China in Central Asia in the longer run.”
A critical component of the IMEC is a dependable connection between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a connection initially set in motion as part of Washington's efforts to normalize relations between the two countries. However, this reconciliation now appears indefinitely postponed.
Farkhod Tolipov, a political analyst from Uzbekistan, called for Central Asian states to maintain neutrality in the ongoing conflict and support UN resolutions for the creation of two separate states—Israel and Palestine. He stressed the importance of recognizing the state of Israel established by the UN, as well as the UN's affirmation of the Palestinian people's right to their own state. Tolipov emphasized the need for clear UN statements supporting the creation of a Palestinian state and condemning severe actions in the Gaza Strip. He advocated for the two-state solution as the foundation for achieving peace.
Osmonbetov, based in Bishkek, emphasized the human toll of the conflict, particularly on civilians, including children, the elderly, and women. He called for prioritizing humanitarian concerns and ensuring access to vital assistance like medical care, water, and food, to prevent humanitarian disasters.
Recently, during the Organization of Turkic States summit in Astana on October 3, Shavkat Mirziyoyev addressed the escalating Palestine-Israel issue and proposed what he believes is the most equitable solution.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev called on both parties to immediately halt hostilities, establish a ceasefire, and seek compromises for humanitarian reasons. "The only and fairest solution to this problem is to resolve the conflict based on the principle of "two states for two peoples," the president said.
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