An expert from Uzbekistan's space agency, Uzbekkosmos (Uzspace), has addressed public concerns regarding the potential fall of the Soviet-era interplanetary spacecraft Cosmos-482, launched more than five decades ago.
The spacecraft, originally part of the USSR’s Venera (Venus) program, may re-enter Earth's atmosphere between May 9 and 11, raising speculation about possible impact zones in Central Asia.
According to Akhror Agzamov, head of the Department for Implementation of New Technologies at Uzspace, Cosmos-482 was launched on March 31, 1972, but failed to exit Earth’s orbit due to a malfunction in the final stage of its launch vehicle. Since then, it has remained in low-Earth orbit.
“Based on current estimates, the probability of debris from Cosmos-482 falling on Uzbekistan is low — between 0.3% and 0.5%,” Agzamov stated. “Most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up during atmospheric reentry. However, a 500-kilogram titanium descent module, built to withstand the extreme conditions of Venus, poses the greatest risk and may survive the fall largely intact.”
Agzamov warned that although the descent module was equipped with a parachute system, it is uncertain whether it would still function after 53 years in space. If it fails to deploy, the module could hit the ground at speeds of up to 500 kilometers per hour.
The public is strongly advised not to approach or touch any potential debris, as it may contain hazardous materials. Any findings should be reported immediately to local authorities.
Uzspace also acknowledged Uzbekistan’s contribution to the later phases of the Soviet Venus program. The Tashkent Machine-Building Design Bureau played a key role in developing soil sampling and drilling instruments for the Venera-13, Venera-14, Vega-1, and Vega-2 missions during the 1980s. These devices were tested at a facility in Nevich village, located in the Tashkent region.
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