Since the beginning of the 2024, Uzbekistan has seen a dramatic decrease in its gas exports, totaling $59.9mn. This figure is markedly lower compared to the $201.5 mn exported during the same period last year in 2023, representing a 3.3-fold decrease in value terms, as it was disclosed by Gazeta.uz.
A month-by-month breakdown reveals the fluctuating nature of these exports: $21 mn in January, $5.7 mn in February, $18.7 mn in March, $6.9 mn in April, and $7.6 mn in May.
Discrepancies in Export Data
Interestingly, there are notable discrepancies between the export data reported by Uzbekistan and the import data from other countries. For instance, the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China reports importing Uzbek gas worth $153.87 mn, which is 2.6 times more than the Uzbek-reported export figure. This discrepancy becomes even more pronounced when considering the nearly $1 mn in gas exports to Kyrgyzstan in February, according to the UN Merchandise Trade Database.
Rising Gas Imports
Simultaneously, Uzbekistan's gas imports have surged. Between January and May, the country imported $643.2 mn worth of gas, a 4.2-fold increase compared to the same period in 2023. This has resulted in a significant trade deficit in gas, with imports outstripping exports by $583.3 mn, highlighting Uzbekistan's growing role as a net importer of gas.
Despite substantial domestic gas reserves, various economic and logistical challenges have led to increased reliance on imported gas.
Issues with Trade Data
Further complicating the issue are inconsistencies in reported data between Uzbekistan and its trade partners. For example, from 2020 onwards, the Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan reported gas exports worth nearly $2.7 bn, including exports to Kyrgyzstan and partially to Russia. In contrast, Chinese import data for the same period indicates imports of Uzbek gas worth $3.23 bn, a $538.1 mn (19.9%) discrepancy.
These discrepancies may be partly attributed to differences in accounting for gas transit, particularly Turkmen gas transiting through Uzbekistan to China. However, even after accounting for this factor, significant statistical differences remain. The Statistics Agency has not provided detailed data on services that might include gas transit figures, and typically only reports trade values without specifying physical volumes.
Responses and Future Plans
According to sources, a private Uzbek company gained exclusive gas export rights in July 2022, and despite official statements about reducing or suspending exports, they continued through December 2022.
Additionally, since October 2023, Uzbekistan has begun importing gas from Russia via Kazakhstan, with plans to invest $500 mn to modernize the main gas system and increase import volumes.
Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov has addressed why Uzbekistan imports Russian gas despite Turkmenistan's closer proximity and substantial reserves, emphasizing that politicizing gas supply issues from Russia is unwarranted.
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