The Board of Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 14% per annum, at its meeting on December 11.
As per to the bank’s report, the decision reflects current macroeconomic conditions: in November, annual headline inflation stood at 7.5%, while core inflation was 6.3%. The bank revised its forecast for end-2025 inflation downward to 7.3%, and projected inflation for 2026 at around 6.5%.
Economic growth is expected to remain robust, with real GDP projected to expand by 7–7.5% by year-end. Nevertheless, CBU cautioned that risks persist — particularly those tied to supply-side pressures such as food supply, transport costs, and regulated price indexation — which could influence future inflation dynamics.
The regulator noted that with inflation and inflation expectations declining, real interest rates remain high, a factor that is supporting growth in savings denominated in the national currency. At the same time, retail lending continues to expand rapidly, driven by increased financial inclusion — a trend that could exert upward pressure on inflation if sustained.
CBU stated that monetary conditions remain tight with the aim of guiding inflation downward, but retained the flexibility to revise the stance if necessary. The next scheduled review of the key rate is set for 28 January 2026.
The most recent policy rate adjustment took place on July 25, 2024, when CBU lowered the key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 13.5% per year, dropping it below 14% for the first time in seven years.
