According to satellite imagery, China is constructing a secret military facility in Tajikistan in response to escalating security threats from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. This construction, ongoing for nearly a decade, began after China and Dushanbe signed a security agreement in 2016.
The military facility, located in the remote and mountainous region of Tajikistan, features look-out towers and troops from both nations, engaging in regular joint military drills showcased on Chinese state media. Neither government has publicly acknowledged the base, which extends a former Soviet outpost, yet images show a steady pace of construction, including access roads.
China's interest in bolstering its military presence across its borders, including in Indian territory within the Himalayas, has been evident. Concerns are mounting that Beijing's increasing ties with Tajikistan could signal similar expansions in neighboring countries. With Russia, Tajikistan's traditional economic and security partner, deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict, China’s influence in the region is growing.
On July 4, President Xi Jinping strengthened these ties during his third state visit to Tajikistan. Political scientist Parviz Mollojonov from International Alert notes,
“The situation is that of a vacuum, and the vacuum is filled by China,” highlighting how China leverages Tajikistan’s security concerns over Afghanistan.
Since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, worries over Tajikistan’s 800-mile border with Afghanistan have intensified. China’s provision of ammunition and technology to Tajikistan aims to establish an "advanced line of defence," though long-term goals remain unclear.
Despite Beijing’s recognition of a Taliban-appointed ambassador and its efforts to build ties with the militant group, China’s increasing presence in the region also serves to suppress Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, maintaining its control over this restive population while pursuing economic expansion into Central Asia and Europe.
Tajikistan has mirrored China's stringent “counter-terrorism” measures against Uyghurs, implementing policies that curb religious expression. Recent laws have banned the hijab, shaved men’s beards, closed mosques, and regulated religious teachings. These actions have provoked protests, violently dispersed by security forces, and driven some Tajiks abroad for greater religious freedom.
For President Emomali Rahmon, these policies are as much about consolidating power as they are about aligning with China. However, the impact of these measures on counter-terrorism remains questionable, with the potential for backlash in a nation where Islam is deeply ingrained.
Tajikistan has also emphasized its cultural ties with Iran, inaugurating a Tehran-funded drone factory in Dushanbe two years ago. This delicate balancing act aims to reassert Tajik identity while avoiding Western isolation.
Mollojonov advocates for a “multi-vector” foreign policy, suggesting Tajikistan maintain independence from both Russian and Chinese dominance.
China’s footprint in Tajikistan is substantial, reflected in numerous infrastructure projects funded by Beijing. President Xi’s recent visit saw the opening of Chinese-financed government buildings, including a presidential palace and a parliament building.
China is now Tajikistan’s largest foreign investor, once accounting for over 60% of Dushanbe’s external debt, now reduced to about 40%. The influx of Chinese mining rights and construction projects, though beneficial for some, has raised environmental and health concerns among locals.
In Ayni, a remote northern town, the impact of Chinese investment is evident. Locals like Mihirgul Noibova have benefited economically, yet there are worries about long-term environmental consequences from increased mining activities.
Across Tajikistan, the presence of Chinese goods and infrastructure is growing, from electric power boxes to public trash bins. The dependency on China extends to everyday life, with Chinese electric vehicles dominating Dushanbe’s taxi fleet, requiring Chinese parts and expertise for maintenance.
The deepening financial dependency on China raises fears of eventual political and security dependence. Mollojonov warns that China could justify a greater military presence in Tajikistan under the pretext of protecting its investments, leading to potential de facto occupation.
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