China, the world's largest energy consumer and importer, is ramping up its natural gas imports from Turkmenistan in a bid to reduce its heavy reliance on coal and transition to cleaner energy sources. However, the environmental benefits of this move are under scrutiny due to methane leaks in Turkmenistan's gas infrastructure.
China's energy consumption is predominantly fueled by imports, with oil, gas, and coal accounting for around 85%, 40%, and 7% of the country's domestic consumption, respectively.
These imports represent a substantial portion of global trade in these commodities: about 18% for oil, 16% for gas, and 18% for coal. To mitigate the environmental and health risks posed by coal, the State Council of China launched an action plan in 2013 aimed at shifting from coal to gas and electricity.
Despite efforts to boost domestic production, China remains heavily dependent on foreign gas, with a dependency rate reaching 44.37% in 2021. Turkmenistan has emerged as a critical supplier, providing more than half of China's pipeline gas imports.
In 2022, Turkmenistan exported 35bn cubic meters (bcm) of gas to China, overtaking Russia, which supplies 10 bcm annually.
The Central Asia-China pipeline system, spanning 1,833 kilometers, is integral to this supply chain. Comprising three operational pipelines and a fourth under construction, this infrastructure highlights China's investment in securing long-term gas supplies from Turkmenistan. Chinese officials have emphasized the strategic importance of these pipelines, which extend beyond mere commercial interests.
For Turkmenistan, China is now the primary destination for its gas exports, accounting for 82% of the country's total exports in 2022. However, Turkmenistan's reputation for economic control, corruption, and weak regulatory frameworks pose challenges for international investors and complicate efforts to modernize its gas industry.
The transition to natural gas is part of China's broader strategy to achieve its climate goals, including a pledge by President Xi Jinping to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060. Natural gas, being less carbon-intensive than coal, is seen as a crucial bridge in this energy transition.
However, Turkmenistan's methane leaks threaten to undermine these environmental benefits. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, contributes to global warming. In 2021, the International Energy Agency identified Turkmenistan as responsible for a third of the world's largest methane emission events.
Addressing methane leaks is crucial for maximizing the climate benefits of natural gas. During the 2021 COP26 summit, Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimukhammedov pledged to adopt modern technologies to curb methane emissions. Yet, skepticism remains about the effectiveness and implementation of these measures.
China's increasing reliance on Turkmen gas highlights the complex interplay between energy security and environmental sustainability. While diversifying energy sources is critical for China's green transition, the unresolved issue of methane leaks in Turkmenistan casts a shadow over the potential climate benefits.
As China continues to expand its renewable energy capacities and phase out coal, ensuring that natural gas imports contribute positively to its climate objectives remains a critical challenge.
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