The population of Central Asia experienced significant growth over the past three decades, surpassing 79 mn people, with an average annual increase of 1 mn in the last ten years alone, The Astana Times reported. Despite facing challenges such as low living standards and high mortality rates, experts anticipate a continued rise, with projections indicating a population exceeding 100 mn by 2050, according to United Nations (UN) data.
As of January 1, Uzbekistan leads the region with a population of 36.7 mn, followed by Kazakhstan with 20 mn, Tajikistan with 10 mn, the Kyrgyz Republic with 7.1 mn, and Turkmenistan with 7 mn inhabitants. Notably, Uzbekistan recorded a population density of 82 people per square kilometre as of January 2024, marking a significant increase over the past decade.
Conversely, Kazakhstan maintains one of the world's lowest population densities, with just 7.3 people per square kilometre, highlighting vast differences in demographic distribution across the region.
Yerkin Tukumov, director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS), emphasizes the significance of human capital for Central Asian countries, which boast one of the world's youngest populations, with an average age of 27.6. Tukumov underscores the importance of capitalizing on the opportunities presented by the youthful demographic, while also acknowledging potential challenges arising from increased urbanization and its impact on birth rates.
Analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank highlight Central Asia's economic potential, with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding $347 bn and a population exceeding 80 mn. Over the past two decades, the region experienced economic expansion, with GDP quadrupling in real terms. Demographic growth is expected to contribute further to economic advancement, given the expanding population and burgeoning labour force.
The surge in population, growing at an annual rate of nearly 2%, is expected to contribute to the economic advancement of Central Asian countries. The expanding population presents a significant market and a burgeoning labour force, with age distribution indicating a forthcoming increase in the workforce.
Over the past 20 years, Central Asian countries maintained an average annual economic growth rate of 6.2%, outperforming developing countries and the global average. This growth was fueled by increasing export revenues, remittances from migrant workers, and foreign direct investment volumes, leading to higher household incomes and reduced poverty levels.
The turnover of external trade in goods in the region reached $165.5 bn in 2021, marking a substantial increase over the past two decades. Additionally, inward foreign direct investment from third countries surged to $211 bn, reflecting significant economic opportunities in the region.
Despite positive economic indicators, some Central Asian countries face challenges such as prolonged isolation, distance from major economic hubs, and limited access to the sea, which may hinder their attractiveness to international investors. However, mutual trade within the region has been progressing rapidly, and the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) surged significantly over the past two decades, indicating potential for further economic growth and development.
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