Kazakhstan, with its long land borders and its flowing oil pipelines, is intrinsically connected to other countries. Some of these connections can be deeply beneficial, others may offer more risks than rewards. But what international relationships should Kazakhstan shore up? And which neighbors should it watch with a wary eye?
As part of our ongoing series where we talk to experts about Kazakhstan, Assel Nussupova recently reached out to Shelby Magid, deputy director at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. Magid gives us her perspective on the issues and opportunities facing Kazakhstan today and her thoughts on Kazakhstan’s relationships with other countries.
In response to being asked about the challenges facing Kazakhstan, Magid cited geopolitical problems that must be faced. She noted, "While not new, Kazakhstan continues to face geopolitical challenges based off its location and neighborhood. Kazakhstan is located in an increasingly strategically critical and important part of the world, but this also comes with geopolitical dangers. A key issue is the balancing act keeping Russia and China at least on friendly terms, while also engaging more with the West. This is a politically, economically, and culturally difficult act and a challenge for any leadership to address. There is also tremendous opportunity with this engagement, as growing economic integration with the West can be largely beneficial to Kazakhstan."
Magid also pointed to issues regarding changing the Kazakh economy. She observed, "Another challenge will be transforming Kazakhstan’s economy for a new era, transitioning from an economy mostly based on fossil fuels into a modern alternative that leverages the country’s massive natural resources in a more sustainable way. Kazakhstan can be a global leader in critical minerals and their processing and in the global nuclear power renaissance. These transitions are never easy and should not be underestimated. However, the US is actively working to support this transition in Kazakhstan, with technical assistance, encouraging foreign direct investment, and providing political support. As other opportunities arise for further support and strengthening of the US-Kazakh relationship, it will be in both countries’ interest to seize them."
When inquired about what areas should be prioritized by the new government, Magid highlighted the need for economic diversification: "Kazakhstan needs to evolve its economy and energy system, moving away from fossil fuels, both as a major portion of its economy and as a source of fuel, including in heating, power generation, and transportation. Diversification will help with both economic and national security, and will also allow the country to integrate more fully with western countries, which are fully committed to the energy transition."
In response to be asked about her views on diversifying the economy and improving trade routes to Europe, Magid noted, "These are good efforts which should be applauded, but what is more essential in the long run will be transportation routes and solutions for critical minerals."
Magid also shared her thoughts relating to Kazakhstan’s relationship with the European Union. She stated, "Western countries, including those in the EU, understand that Kazakhstan has a long, shared history with Russia, and that includes strong cultural and economic ties. They also understand that Kazakhstan’s geopolitical and geographical situation requires that it not alienate either Russia or China. Against this backdrop, it is clear to the West that Kazakhstan is looking for closer relations with western countries, including the EU. Both the EU and US welcome these increased ties and are likely to use their resources to help support Kazakhstan in its path toward greater western orientation and integration."
She also observed that "Kazakhstan’s energy and natural resource commodities are of tremendous value to the EU. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the global energy crisis it created in preparation for that invasion taught Europe that it is dangerously energy insecure and vulnerable. The EU is therefore looking to diversify its energy sources away from Russia as much as possible, and also to diversify them within their energy mixes. This, coupled with the accelerating energy transition, means that securing the minerals, commodities, and manufacturing necessary for energy has become a critical issue for Europe, and Central Asia is the most promising source (except for oil, and some gas, which is also being imported from the Caucasus, Middle East, and U.S.)."
Magid had this to say about Kazakhstan’s desire for greater security: "It is clear Kazakhstan wants more national and economic security than it currently has, with Russia contributing to concerns and vulnerabilities. Given Russia’s disruptive priorities, global aggression, and the sanctions it is currently under, Russia is a dangerous partner to be oriented towards. Kazakhstan faces a situation where the West is ready and eager to embrace it."
In regards to the government of Kazakhstan’s goal of doubling the GDP over the next five years, Magid offered a mixed assessment. She noted, "This is a good, though potentially overly ambitious, goal. The best opportunity for such growth is in the mining and minerals sector and projects should be prioritized there.
By Assel Nussupova
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