Historically, Central and South Asia was intricately linked through the Great Silk Road, fostering political, economic, and cultural exchanges. However, these connections saw a decline over time. However, recent developments, brought the Trans-Afghan railway project into the spotlight, prompting discussions about its implications for the region.
Abdulla Abdukadirov, the First Deputy Director of the Agency for Strategic Reforms under the President of Uzbekistan, and Nargiza Umarova, a political analyst from the Knowledge Caravan non-governmental scientific institution, provided their perspectives on the matter.
During a diplomatic visit to Afghanistan on March 12-13, Bakhtiyor Saidov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, held discussions with Taliban leaders. The Trans-Afghan project was a key topic, sparking questions about its relevance for Central Asian countries, particularly Uzbekistan.
Addressing the idea of the larger geopolitical framework, Abdukadirov mentions the conflict between Israel and Palestine on October 7, 2023. As a result of this conflict, the Houthis blocked access to the Red Sea, posing a threat to the crucial sea route between the West and Asia, which forced the search for other routes.
With the increasing intensity of the search for other routes, attention is turning to important geopolitical players, particularly China and India in the East. Developing trade relations with China, India, and Russia is essential for Persian Gulf nations that act as a link between West and South Asia. The political and economic interests of Uzbekistan are positioned inside this dynamic framework.
The Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif railway, operational since 2011, provided Uzbekistan an important link to Afghanistan and made it possible to explore other shipping routes in the face of geopolitical instability all over the world.
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The Trans-Afghan Railway project, despite its longstanding existence, gained momentum in 2019 following discussions between the government of Pakistan and a delegation from Uzbekistan. The primary subject of discussion was how to integrate Afghanistan's transportation system with Pakistan's, with a focus on the logistics of transportation. Pakistan is boosting its transportation industry with China's help, and it has important ports such as Gwadar and Karachi. The Trans-Afghan railway's connection to Peshawar and subsequently the port of Gwadar is currently a goal of Uzbekistan.
China places less importance on the routes in Central Asia because there are two main routes. The first goes via Russia to Europe, and the second goes through Kazakhstan to the Caspian Sea. Consequently, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway does not hold much importance. The significance of these routes largely depends on the volume of goods transported.
China's connection to Iran via Pakistan is crucial, particularly because of the recent 25-year agreement between the two countries. China is actively resolving technical challenges associated with the project of building a road from Pakistan to Iran. Access to Pakistan via Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan serves as an alternative route for China, but it is not the primary one.
- Abdulla Abdukadirov said.
The global West’s primary objective currently is to curb China’s development. As a result, they are attempting to establish trade relations with India, either through Iranian ports or other ports. Russia emerges as another key player in this scenario. On February 22, during the President of Uzbekistan’s visit to Kazan, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed interest in constructing a new transit railway through Afghanistan.
- Abdulla Abdukadirov stated.
Trade along the Baltic Sea decreased after Sweden joined NATO. As a result, Russia focuses primarily on the global south. For Russia, trade over the Caspian Sea from Iran to India is vital. Russia is currently deliberating about a second project to replace this route. Russia wants to go via Georgia and Armenia to reach Iran.
Russia aims to enter Iran through Armenia and Georgia. Russia also has a potential exit route to Iran or Pakistan through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan. Russia has an equal interest in these three directions. However, according to Abdulla Abdukadirov, there is a high likelihood of reaching Iranian ports via the Caspian. But, as Abdulla Abdukadirov notes, there is a good chance of using the Caspian to get to Iranian ports.
Nargiza Umarova stated that the Trans-Afghan railway is important for Uzbekistan. However, Uzbekistan should leverage the available opportunities. Otherwise, it risks falling behind other countries. Recently, Turkmenistan has been enhancing the transport corridors in the direction of both Iran and Pakistan. This presents a competitive route for Uzbekistan, thereby narrowing its opportunities.
China made substantial investments in Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the most expensive among China’s global projects, costing $60 bn. Therefore, China strives to supply goods to Pakistan. Although the goods arriving in Central Asia may not be of primary importance for China, they will remain significant.
It is noteworthy that Russia joined this project and showed interest in 2018. Additionally, the countries of the Persian Gulf are also interested. In particular, Uzbekistan established strong relations with Qatar, with special delegations from Qatar visiting Uzbekistan multiple times. A presentation of the Trans-Afghan railway project was held there.
The ability of each country to export and import energy resources plays a pivotal role in ensuring regional security and stability, according to Abdulla Abdukadirov. Currently, the focus is on Qatar. It is in the interest of all Persian Gulf countries to sell hydrocarbon resources to China, India, and the West. This is why these countries are interested in making this railway the primary transport corridor.
The sale of electricity produced by hydrocarbons is of significant importance. The CASA-1000 project, developed by the European Commission in the 70s, led to the emergence of the Trans-Afghan railway project. This project aims to export surplus electricity from Central Asian countries to Afghanistan and, through Pakistan, to India. The project is currently under development. If there is interest in this project and the export of energy resources from Russia or Kazakhstan is clear, the prospect of implementing the CASA-1000 project will expand. This is likely why Russia is currently interested in purchasing gas storage facilities in Uzbekistan.
Turkmenistan cannot export large volumes of gas to China. That is why Turkmenistan mainly orientates its gas exports to the West. The course of events is changing rapidly.
- Nargiza Umarova stated.
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