The World Bank released a report titled "Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2060: A Sustainable Energy Future for Europe and Central Asia," on February 22. The report offers a comprehensive roadmap for emerging countries in the region to transition to renewable energy sources and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, in alignment with global climate goals.
Pathways to Renewable Energy Transition
The report outlines strategic pathways for countries in Europe and Central Asia to shift towards renewable energy sources, aiming to eliminate carbon emissions from energy systems by 2060. As per to the World Bank Regional Director for Infrastructure for the region, Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Charles Cormier,
"The analysis identifies the least costly ways for the countries of Europe and Central Asia to fulfill the global commitments adopted at COP-28. Our modeling results show that the share of clean energy in this region could increase from 9% today to 75% by 2060. This will only be possible if countries make strong commitments and implement targeted measures and investments."
Challenges in Central Asia
Central Asia, known for its significant gas exports, faces challenges in meeting both domestic demand and export obligations, particularly due to stagnating gas production. The report notes that "Soaring demand throughout the subregion, coupled with stagnant gas production (especially in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan), limits its ability to simultaneously meet export obligations to China and meet domestic winter peak demand." Additionally, the proposed Gas Union, initiated by Russia, presents an opportunity to balance supply and demand within the region. However, uncertainties surrounding infrastructure and Russian gas supplies raise concerns about its feasibility.
Transition Strategies for Key Countries
The report advocates for increased gas imports from Turkmenistan to meet growing demand and facilitate the transition towards cleaner energy alternatives. It suggests that replacing coal in Kazakhstan and closing the emerging gap between supply and demand in Uzbekistan, as well as meeting growing demand throughout Central Asia, can be achieved by intensifying regional gas trade in Central Asia and increasing gas imports from Turkmenistan.
Carbon Neutrality Targets
Investment Requirements and Economic Implications
Realizing the vision of carbon neutrality by 2060 necessitates substantial investments, estimated at $4.7 trillion, equivalent to 3.9% of the region's GDP. Compared to a fossil fuel trajectory, the additional investment required for the energy transition is $872 bn. The transition to renewable energy sources promises economic benefits, including job creation and enhanced energy security.
Challenges of Fossil Fuel Subsidies
Persistent fossil fuel subsidies pose a significant barrier to the energy transition, diverting funds away from critical investments in renewable energy infrastructure. The report underscores the need to phase out subsidies to ensure energy security and promote sustainable energy development. Report states that, continuing fossil fuel subsidies—which in some countries in the region rank among the largest in the world—could have a negative impact on the region’s energy security, hinder the construction of a sustainable energy future, encourage wasteful energy consumption, and divert funds needed for critical investments in increasing energy efficiency and developing renewable energy sources.
Unlocking Renewable Energy Potential
The report highlights the untapped potential of solar and wind energy in the region, emphasizing the need for greater investment in renewable energy technologies. Despite an increase in renewable energy adoption, there remains considerable room for growth, with solar and wind energy accounting for only a fraction of the region's energy mix. As the report suggests, significant progress must be made in the development of new and less mature technologies, such as hydrogen production and use and carbon removal, through [renewable energy] subsidies and higher carbon pricing.
Uzbekistan
Recent figures from Uzbekistan's Statistical Agency highlight the gravity of the situation, showing a decrease in gas production to 3.9 bn cubic meters in January of the current year. This decline reflects a broader pattern, with gas output in 2023 amounting to 46 bn cubic meters, indicating a 9.4% reduction compared to the corresponding period in 2022.
Kazakhstan, too, plays a significant role in gas production, boasting vast natural resources estimated at 2.7 trillion cubic meters. As of 2023, the country's annual gas production stands at 89.9 mn metric tons.
Earlier Daryo reported that Uztransgaz, responsible for managing Uzbekistan's gas transportation infrastructure, is poised to undertake a substantial modernization effort geared towards improving the country's gas imports from Russia. This decision was revealed in the investment plan outlined by the Cabinet of Ministers on February 15. The initial budget for the project is estimated at $470 mn, and the implementation is slated to begin in 2024 and extend until 2030. The primary objective of the initiative is to upgrade the main gas pipelines to facilitate higher volumes of natural gas imports from Russia.
Comments (0)