In January 2022, Kazakhstan faced a significant crisis, prompting the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to respond immediately, as per the CACI Analyst. The peaceful protests in Almaty escalated into violence, leading President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to request assistance from the CSTO, resulting in the swift deployment of peacekeeping forces from member states. The January incidents in Kazakhstan brought two key issues to the forefront: the role of the CSTO peacekeeping force and the potential for external backing for the events, as per the Foreign Policy Analyst from Central Asia, Eldaniz Gusseinov.
CSTO: helping hand or intruder?
Discussions concerning Russia and the CSTO were separately analyzed. Predominant were statements about the CSTO’s assistance and inefficiency, along with potential interference in Kazakhstan’s matters.
The narrative “CSTO - an entity that has demonstrated its ineffectiveness over its 30-year existence” was widely propagated, as evidenced by conflicts in the post-Soviet region like the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war or the appeal by Kyrgyzstan’s President Roza Otunbayeva to deploy peacekeepers to halt the Kyrgyz-Uzbek clashes in Osh in 2010.
Russia: key player in CSTO and threat to sovereignty?
Russia was perceived as the principal actor in the CSTO. More critical publications discussed Russia’s dominance in the CSTO and its actions leading to a reduction in Kazakhstan’s sovereignty. The impact of CSTO decisions on Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, particularly on Russia, was also scrutinized.
The USA and EU: champions of peaceful protests or meddlers?
The USA and EU’s support for peaceful protests and Kazakhstan’s sovereignty was generally well-received. However, some questioned whether these countries were interfering in Kazakhstan’s affairs.
Türkiye’s role: positive influence
Türkiye’s official stance of supporting stability in Kazakhstan was seen positively, especially by those opposed to the CSTO deployment. Some even suggested that Türkiye could replace Russia as Kazakhstan’s main ally.
Social media analysis:
A study was conducted on social media platforms, including Instagram, Telegram, and YouTube. The study spanned 16 accounts and analyzed 6712 posts made between January 2 and 21, 2022. The primary focus of these posts was not on external actors. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia were frequently discussed in tandem.
Out of the 61 posts that mentioned the CSTO, 47 portrayed it in a negative light, while 14 were positive. Other global players such as the USA, EU, China, and Turkey were generally depicted neutrally or positively. The portrayal of the CSTO varied across platforms - it was negatively depicted on YouTube and Instagram, while on Telegram, the portrayal was either positive or neutral.
Background
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) found itself thrust into the spotlight in January 2022 when Kazakhstan experienced a severe crisis. The events unfolded rapidly, with peaceful protests escalating into violent riots that targeted state institutions. As the crisis unfolded, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sought assistance from the CSTO, which promptly dispatched forces to safeguard key locations and institutions. This article aims to critically analyze the CSTO's intervention in Kazakhstan's January crisis and its implications for regional security and stability.
CSTO intervention: departure from past
The CSTO's intervention in Kazakhstan's crisis differed from previous instances of Russian involvement in the former Soviet Union. Unlike past interventions that appeared to be meticulously planned by Moscow, the CSTO's response in Kazakhstan seemed reactive rather than premeditated. Furthermore, once the situation stabilized, the CSTO forces withdrew from Kazakhstan, indicating that the intervention was not aimed at exerting long-term control or influence over the country.
January 5, 2022: escalation of protests and government response
Amidst growing protests in Almaty, violent factions, including individuals linked to criminal gangs and radical Islamic groups, intensified their attacks on government offices, police, and public infrastructure. The situation reached a critical point as protesters seized the Almaty airport, took control of aircraft, and engaged in widespread looting. By evening, President Tokayev accepted the resignation of the government, maintaining a caretaker government.
CSTO intervention announced
In a surprising move, the CSTO approved Kazakhstan's request for "peacekeeping forces for a limited period." Russian and Kazakh news agencies reported the deployment of these forces, emphasizing the need for intervention to restore order. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, representing the CSTO, issued a statement confirming the organization's involvement.
January 6, 2022: CSTO operation commences
The CSTO's peacekeeping forces, comprising troops from Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, began deploying in Kazakhstan to safeguard key infrastructure and government facilities. President Tokayev, in a televised address, acknowledged the resignation of Nursultan Nazarbayev from the National Security Council, while Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Kazakhstan had not sought Russian assistance in handling the protests.
Government actions and CSTO numbers
Kazakhstan's Interior Ministry reported a "mop-up operation" by Almaty police, resulting in casualties among law enforcement officers and numerous arrests. President Tokayev announced a 180-day price cap on vehicle fuel and a moratorium on utility rate increases. CSTO General Secretary Stanislav Zas revealed that the full contingent of peacekeepers would number about 2,500.
International reactions
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed Washington's "full support for Kazakhstan's constitutional institutions" and urged a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
January 7, 2022: President Tokayev declares restoration of constitutional order
President Tokayev declared the restoration of the constitutional order in a televised address. He expressed gratitude to Russia for assisting in establishing order, while more than 70 planes brought Russian troops into Kazakhstan to control Almaty's airport. Peaceful protests continued in certain regions, and arrests and detentions escalated.
Continued operations and speculations
Russian and Kazakh forces jointly took control of critical facilities, and reports circulated about the arrest of organized crime figure Arman Dzhumageldiyev. Speculations regarding the whereabouts of key figures, including Samat Abish and Nazarbayev, emerged but remained unconfirmed.
January 8-10, 2022: subsequent days and government responses
Anti-government protests persisted in Zhanaozen, and former KNB head Karim Massimov was reportedly detained on suspicion of treason. The government initiated investigations into sellers of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The interior ministry estimated property damage at $198mn, with casualties reaching 164, including 103 in Almaty.
CSTO withdrawal and political responses
President Tokayev declared a day of mourning, labelling the protests a "coup attempt" orchestrated by "foreign-trained Islamist radicals." Internet services were restored after a blackout, and in a virtual CSTO meeting, President Tokayev announced the completion of the CSTO mission in Kazakhstan, with a full withdrawal scheduled by January 23. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed the CSTO defended Kazakhstan from a "foreign-backed terrorist uprising," pledging protection to other ex-Soviet states.
The CSTO intervention, marked by international cooperation, played a crucial role in stabilizing Kazakhstan during the tumultuous events of January 2022. The aftermath leaves the nation grappling with the aftermath of the crisis and the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region.
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