Europe's ambitious push for the Middle Corridor touted as a strategic alternative to the Northern Route, faces a complex web of geopolitical challenges, the Diplomat reported. While seeking to bolster overland links with China, Europe grapples with the potential unintended benefits accruing to competing powers—China, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan—ultimately raising questions about the corridor's efficacy in serving European interests.
The World Bank's recent economic analysis paints a promising picture for the Middle Corridor, anticipating a halving of travel times between China and Europe and a tripling of freight volumes by 2030. However, beneath this optimism lie significant hurdles, from logistical challenges along the corridor to Europe's struggle to isolate its benefits.
Projected to run from Kazakhstan's eastern border with China to the Azerbaijani port of Aktau, with onward transit via the South Caucasus and the Black Sea to Europe, the Middle Corridor faces capacity constraints compared to its Northern counterpart. Logistical bottlenecks and digitalization hurdles pose challenges, but the willingness to address them signals potential success.
Yet, the crux of the issue lies in Europe's difficulty in ring-fencing the benefits of the Middle Corridor. As Europe invests in infrastructure projects, it inadvertently supports the goals of geopolitical rivals. China aims to increase Kazakhstan's economic dependence, while Russia may seek diversified routes or a backdoor around international sanctions.
In Eastern Kazakhstan, where the corridor begins, congested rail lines and recent actions by Ukraine targeting Siberian routes add further complexity. The Caspian Sea, a crucial juncture, demands expanded shipping capacity, which, if realized, could benefit Iran and Russia, complicating Europe's strategic aims.
The South Caucasus presents its own set of challenges. Delays at the Gardabani border crossing and the need for significant investments to overhaul the Baku-Tbilisi rail link underscore potential vulnerabilities. Europe's support for infrastructure projects may inadvertently empower regional actors, including Iran, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
While Europe pursues the Middle Corridor as a geoeconomic tool, the intricate geopolitical landscape raises concerns. The corridor's unintended consequences and vulnerabilities expose Europe to risks, as competing powers leverage shared infrastructure. Striking a delicate balance between economic goals and regional stability becomes imperative for the success of the Middle Corridor.
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