Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a significant meeting with China's Xi Jinping during this week's Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, marking Putin's first journey outside the former Soviet Union since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his actions regarding child deportations from Ukraine in March.
This gathering is notable because the United States identifies China as its primary rival, while it considers Russia its foremost nation-state threat. Observers have argued that Putin and Xi have quietly forged one of the most impactful global alliances, and the U.S. must grapple with the complex reality that a rapidly rising systemic rival (China) and a resurgent one-dimensional superpower with the world's largest nuclear arsenal (Russia) are closely aligned in opposition to the United States.
However, U.S.-China relations have also been strained due to China's potential supply of weapons to Russia amid the ongoing conflict with Ukrainian forces backed by the U.S. and EU. It's noteworthy that China leads a colossal $18 trillion economy and must balance its relations with Putin while dealing with the $27 trillion U.S. economy, the world's preeminent military power.
The optics of the Ukraine conflict make major public agreements unlikely at the moment. Nevertheless, discussions between Putin and Xi will likely encompass military and nuclear cooperation, along with Russia's aim to increase natural gas exports to China and the potential construction of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline through Mongolia. However, the specifics of a gas deal, including pricing and construction costs, remain uncertain.
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