Amid the devaluation of the ruble, a significant portion of labour migrants in Russia are contemplating leaving the country, Vedomosti writes, citing the head of the Uzbek diaspora in Moscow, Bakhrom Ismailov. Concerns over the economic impact and the potential departure of migrants have been raised by members of migrant communities and experts. An online survey among Uzbekistani migrants yielded mixed results, shedding light on the dilemma faced by foreign workers as the ruble's value declines.
Migrant intentions and survey results
Head of the Uzbek diaspora in Moscow, Bakhrom Ismailov, voiced concerns over the possible exodus of labour migrants due to the ruble's devaluation. An online survey conducted among representatives of the migrant community from Uzbekistan revealed that around half of the 22.8 thousand participants were contemplating leaving Russia. An additional 25% expressed no intention to leave, while the remaining participants remained undecided.
Ismailov estimated that approximately one-third of the total migrant population might consider leaving. He highlighted that the sectors with the lowest wages, such as catering, retail, courier services, and agriculture, would likely experience the most significant outflow.
Economic factors and losses
The depreciation of the ruble has narrowed the income gap between what foreigners earn in Russia and their potential earnings in their home countries. This economic shift has spurred contemplation among migrants about the feasibility of continuing their work in Russia. The head of the Union of Tajiks of Russia, Abdullo Davlatov, pointed out the financial losses incurred during currency conversion when sending money home. Experts also highlighted the declining appeal of working in Russia for foreign labourers due to the tightening of migration policies, lower wages, and the perceived attitude of law enforcement officers towards migrants.
Expert views
Migration experts hold varying perspectives on the potential scale of migrant departures. While Bakhrom Ismailov estimated a possible one-third departure rate, migration expert Vadim Kozhenov presented a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that no more than 10% might leave. Kozhenov emphasised that the construction sector could experience the most significant labour shortage, while other sectors like public catering and agriculture may remain relatively stable due to their self-sufficiency potential.
According to projections by the Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation and the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor Protection and Economics, the economy's need for migrants is expected to increase to 3.5 mn people by 2030. This signifies a growth of 400 thousand people from the 2022 level, reaching a range of 4.2% to 4.7%. The potential departure of labour migrants could potentially impact sectors relying on migrant labour, affecting overall economic productivity.
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