The mutiny of the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has captivated attention in the Ukrainian capital and raised questions about its repercussions for Vladimir Putin and the ongoing war in Ukraine, BBC reports.
Ukrainian officials in Kyiv believe that Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end, with one senior adviser to President Zelensky stating, "I think the countdown has started." The sentiment is rooted in Ukraine's view of Russia as a terrorist country, led by an inadequate leader disconnected from reality.
The recent Wagner mutiny and Prigozhin's condemnation of the Kremlin's justifications for the war have further eroded Putin's chances of holding on to power. Ukrainian officials argue that the Putin regime is beyond salvation.
While it is important to consider that Ukrainian views may be influenced by the ongoing conflict and the struggle for national survival, they have been consistent in their messaging to both their own people, Western allies, and Moscow. Ukrainian officials suggest that Putin is facing significant opposition from organized networks of disenchanted insiders, including security forces, officials, and representatives of Russia's oligarchs. These groups see the invasion of Ukraine as a personal disaster and a threat to Russia.
Ukrainian sources claim that the top-down authoritarian system built by Putin is being replaced by a power vacuum at the center. There are speculations that Putin may be forced to dismiss his Defense Minister and Chief of Staff in response to another military setback, a demand made by Prigozhin and the Wagner mutineers. It is believed that Prigozhin's political life is not over, and he may not remain in exile in Belarus.
Regarding the ongoing offensive, Ukrainian officials downplay the influence of the Wagner mutiny on the overall fighting along the 1,800km front, the longest in any war since 1945. Ukraine acknowledges the challenges it faces in the conflict, including casualties and the strain on troops and equipment, including NATO-supplied armor.
Ukrainian officials also acknowledge concerns among Western leaders that a collapse of Putin's regime could lead to instability and power struggles, given Russia's possession of the world's largest nuclear arsenal. Ukraine hopes that the upcoming NATO summit in Lithuania will provide a clear path to NATO membership, as they believe presenting a united front to Moscow is the best response to the instability in Russia.
However, the uncertainty surrounding Putin's regime, exacerbated by the ongoing war and the Wagner drama, may increase anxiety among NATO countries that prefer a peaceful resolution to the conflict through negotiations rather than on the battlefield. The future of Putin and his regime is likely to be a significant topic of discussion at the upcoming NATO summit.
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