US officials are considering the possibility of the Russia-Ukraine war evolving into a frozen conflict lasting for decades, drawing parallels with the divided Korean peninsula, Politico reports.
The Biden administration is engaged in discussions to identify potential agreed-upon boundaries between Ukraine and Russia, which would serve as informal markers not to be crossed. These preliminary discussions are taking place in various departments within the US government and the White House.
As neither Kyiv nor Moscow wants to concede defeat, a long-term frozen conflict is seen as the most realistic scenario. Furthermore, the US administration is signaling that a future Ukrainian counteroffensive would not pose a significant threat to Russia, further supporting the notion of a prolonged stalemate.
A frozen conflict could be seen as a politically acceptable outcome for the US and other partner states of Ukraine, as it would reduce the costs associated with supporting Kyiv. In exchange, Ukraine may be offered long-term security relations with the United States and NATO.
The article notes that Washington typically plans for multiple scenarios simultaneously when assessing the situation. One such comparison made by American officials and analysts is the Korean War, where active hostilities ceased with a truce in 1953, but the war has never been officially declared over even after 70 years.
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