The Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) reported that from 2019 to 2023, the growth of Kazakhstan’s consolidated budget, which includes state and local budgets, transfers, and National Fund spending, trailed behind the rise in expenditure by 0.87%. This discrepancy led the government to increase its borrowing by 1.7 times to $12.2 bn and the size of transfers from the National Fund to $40.4 bn over five years, Kursiv reported.
Revenue sources
In the past five years, the consolidated budget of Kazakhstan has remained relatively stable. Taxes formed the largest portion of state revenue, accounting for 37%.
In 2023, tax authorities in Kazakhstan collected $52.2 bn in taxes, marking a 10% increase from 2022. This was primarily due to an increase in the collection of value-added tax ($258 mn) and customs fees ($315 mn).
However, despite these figures, the tax authorities managed to fulfil only 91% of the tax collection plan. The AFK suggests that the decline in oil prices has offset the positive impact of factors such as the increase in tax rates and the country’s economic growth of 5.1%.
Conversely, the government reported a 3.2-fold increase in non-tax revenue compared to 2022. This surge was driven by dividend payouts on securities controlled by the government ($2.4 bn).
Expenditure changes
Expenditure on the consolidated budget grew by 27% ($14 bn), reaching $63.5 bn. This figure exceeds revenue by 12% ($7.7 bn).
The primary drivers of this growth were debt settlement and servicing (+$2.8 bn), an increase in costs related to education (+$2.8 bn), social support (+$1.7 bn), and utilities ($1.3 bn).
Over the past five years, the share of debt settlement and servicing in the overall budget structure has grown from 10% to 16%, while the share of social support has dropped from 23% to 18%.
In 2024, according to the socio-economic development forecast, a slight surplus of the consolidated budget may emerge. However, risks such as lower oil prices, delays with the Tengiz Expansion project, problems with oil exports via the CPC, and the potential impact of various geopolitical factors could worsen budget parameters.
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