Central Asia is becoming increasingly important on the global stage as major players compete for influence in this resource-rich and strategic region. In 2023, Central Asian leaders have been active in fostering international relations, holding a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, engaging with President of the European Council Charles Michel in June, and participating in a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in September.
On August 9, Astana will host the Central Asia plus Japan Summit Dialogue. This event marks a pivotal moment in the region's diplomatic calendar, given its historical focus and the new format of leader-level engagement.
Historical Context and Significance of the Event
Launched in 2004, the Central Asia plus Japan initiative has traditionally involved regular ministerial-level meetings aimed at discussing current and future prospects of inter-regional cooperation. While this forum has long served as a central platform for constructive engagement between Japan and Central Asian states, this year’s summit is generating particular attention as it will be the first held at the top leader level.
The geopolitical importance of Central Asia has surged recently, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine. Positioned at the crossroads of major trade routes between Europe and Asia, the region is a key transit point and a growing trade hub. Additionally, Central Asia is rich in natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and rare earth elements, making it an attractive location for countries seeking to secure supply chains for these critical materials.
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has somewhat loosened the ties between Central Asian countries and Moscow. Although economic bonds remain strong, several Central Asian countries are seeking to maximize benefits by cooperating with all willing partners.
Japan's Strategic Interests and Themes of Engagement
Sustainability and Energy Security
Central Asian countries are rich in natural resources but heavily reliant on oil and gas, which produce significant greenhouse gas emissions. Japan has committed to supporting Central Asia’s efforts toward sustainable economic development.
Kazakhstan aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, outlined in its “Doctrine of Carbon Neutral Development.” Key measures include phasing out coal combustion by 2025, doubling the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation by 2030, and fully electrifying personal passenger transport by 2045. With significant potential for renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, Kazakhstan plans to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix to 15% by 2030. Japan and Kazakhstan signed a memorandum of cooperation on low-carbon development and energy transition in January 2024, and Japanese technology and loans are expected to ease this process.
Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy ambitions offer another potential area for collaboration. The country plans to hold a referendum in autumn 2024 on whether to build its first nuclear power plant. This initiative, announced by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, diversify the energy mix, and lower CO2 emissions. Given Japan’s extensive experience with nuclear technology, it can play a supportive role in Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy plans, providing advanced technology, stringent safety protocols, and training programs for Kazakh engineers and technicians. Notably, both countries are champions in international dialogues on military denuclearization, and such a shared perspective might facilitate their cooperation.
Enhancing Connectivity
Another key element of Japan’s regional engagement is Tokyo’s interest in enhancing connectivity between Europe and Asia. Japan plans to support the further development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also called the Middle Corridor, a maritime shipping route through the Caspian Sea aimed at connecting China with Europe via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, while bypassing Russia. Despite weak global trade statistics last year, cargo transportation along the TITR exceeded 2.7 mn tons in 2023, a 65 percent increase compared to 2022. Cargo transportation via the TITR in the first half of 2024 was 2.2 million tons.
In such a framework, Japan’s contribution will likely include providing digital technologies for processing customs procedures, a crucial step in infrastructural modernization to improve logistics and trade flows. Likewise, Japan’s expertise in infrastructure can further support the development of transportation and logistics networks, as the country has already invested in and funded various infrastructural projects across the region.
Human Resource Development
Japan’s engagement with Central Asia also extends to human resource development. Recognizing the region’s need to diversify its workforce destinations amid tightening Western economic sanctions on Russia, Japan will encourage Central Asian countries to participate in its vocational training programs. These programs aim to equip Central Asian workers with skills in various trades, addressing Japan’s acute labor shortages while fostering person-to-person exchanges.
Additionally, Japan has a history of supporting educational and leadership development through the Japan Centers and JICA programs, which have trained many Central Asian leaders and professionals who now play key roles in their home countries.
This focus on human resource development has far-reaching implications. For Japan, it means mitigating labor shortages and sustaining economic growth by integrating skilled workers from Central Asia into its workforce. For Central Asian countries, it represents a strategic opportunity to enhance their human capital, increase employment rates, and foster economic diversification.
As global powers vie for influence in Central Asia, Japan’s multifaceted approach – focused on sustainability, interconnectivity, and human resource development – positions it as an additional key partner for the region.
Central Asian countries view this summit as an opportunity to diversify their international partnerships, boost economic growth, and enhance regional stability by leveraging Japan’s expertise and support.
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