Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan are on the rise again, according to a report from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. As of October, the average forecasted inflation rate among the population increased by 2% to 13.7%, with the median level also seeing a slight increase to 11.1%.
Currency fluctuations have been identified as the primary factor influencing these expectations, cited by 59% of respondents. Other significant factors include the rising cost of fuel and energy resources (49%), an increase in utility tariffs (36%), speculative price increases (30%), and an increase in wages and benefits (24%). Transportation costs were also frequently mentioned, with an increase in mentions over the month to 29%.
Business inflation forecasts are similarly on the rise, albeit at rates significantly lower than at the beginning of the year. In October, the average inflation expected by entrepreneurs was 14.4% (+2%), with a similar increase in the median figure to 11.7%. The main factors influencing these forecasts mirror those of the general population, with exchange rate fluctuations leading (62%), followed by an increase in fuel prices (47%) and utility tariffs (37%). Other notable factors include transport costs (32%), while the number of respondents citing wage growth (24%) and problems with the supply of imported raw materials (15%) decreased.
These figures come at a time when Uzbekistan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.1% in 2023. The country’s GDP is currently at $80.4 bn, with a GDP per capita of $2254.9. The fiscal deficit is expected to remain unchanged in 2023. These figures underscore the significance of the Central Bank’s comments and the ongoing efforts to maintain economic stability in Uzbekistan.
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